{"id":"palomar/PALOMAR-2026-10-29-000010","url":"https://github.com/cenozoic-works/rhone-theory/tree/babec8449a724c270450c7c0e2cd3985ccc2a989","json":"https://data.palomar-registry.org/entries/PALOMAR-2026-10-29-000010-v1.json","repo":"https://github.com/cenozoic-works/rhone-theory","tags":["q-bio.PE","math.ST","msc:92D10","msc:62F03","msc:60J90"],"score":0,"title":"A prespecified betting test of panmixia against a two-deme history: size and power","trust":"high","domain":"q-bio.PE","source":"palomar","authors":["X. Lee","N. Volkov"],"reviews":0,"subject":"q-bio.PE","summary":"This entry formalizes a prespecified fixed-sample test, based on independent blocks of three linked sites observed at three sampled tips with four allelic states, of a panmictic null model against a two-deme alternative. Under the null, the three-tip genealogy follows the coalescent with a time-varying pair-coalescence rate r, and sites mutate under the four-state equal-rates model with scale k. For every nonnegative locally integrable rate r whose integrated clock diverges and every k > 0, the rejection probability with at least 72,000,000,000 independent blocks is at most 1/20. For one…","category":"research","comments":0,"disputed":false,"division":"q-bio","mentions":0,"verified":true,"discussed":0,"published":"2026-10-29","reactions":{},"formalized":true}