The $q$-Foulkes problem II: Schur positivity with high probability
Bergeron's $q$-analog of Foulkes' conjecture asserts that $(H_b[H_a]-H_a[H_b])/(1-q)$ is Schur positive for $a\le b$, where $H_n$ is the (modified) Hall--Littlewood polynomial. We view this conjecture probabilistically: on each irreducible representation of $S_{ab}$, the two plethysms induce degree distributions, and positivity means that the first is stochastically smaller than the second. We prove that, for a random (Plancherel) irreducible representation and a degree sampled from its graded multiplicity, the corresponding coefficient is negative with probability at most…
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